David A. Banister– www.MarketTrendForecast.com
Elliott Wave Forecast: Back on September 12th with the SP 500 at 1689 we forecasted a run in the SP 500 to 1829, a very specific number. We use Elliott Wave Theory and Analysis in part to come up with projected pivots for the SP 500 and this was our projection.
Elliott Wave Analysis is based largely on Human Behavioral patterns that repeat over and over again throughout time. It’s really crowd behavior or herd mentality as applied to the broader stock markets. This can also apply to individual stocks, precious metals and more. At the end of the day, an individual stock is worth what investors believe it is worth, and it won’t necessarily reflect what a private valuation may accord it.
With that in mind, the stock market as a basket of 500 stocks can pretty easily be patterned out and then we can apply our Elliott Wave Theory to that pattern and predict outcomes. Back in mid-September, we believed we were in a 3rd wave up of the bull market as part of what we call Primary wave 3. The primary waves are 1-5 and Primary 3 is usually the most bullish of the 5 primary waves with 2 and 4 being corrective. Well, within Primary wave 3 you have 5 major waves… and we projected that Major wave 3 would be running to about 1829.
This projection was based on the 1267 pivot for Major wave 2 of Primary Wave Pattern 3 which was a corrective wave. We then simply applied a Fibonacci ratio to the Major wave 1 and assumed that Major wave 3 would be 161% of Major 1. That brings us to about 1822-1829… and here we are a few months later heading into Thanksgiving with the SP 500 hitting 1807 and getting close to our projection.
What will happen afterwards should be a Major wave 4 correction. We expect this to be about 130 points on the shallow side of corrections, and as much as 212 points.
So the Bull Market is not over, but Major Wave Pattern 3 of Primary 3 is coming to an end as we are in a seasonally strong period for the market. We would not be shocked to see a strong January 2014 correction in the markets as part of Major wave 4.
Below is our September 14th elliott wave forecast chart we sent to our subscribers and you can see we continue now along the same path.
Elliott Wave Forecast Model
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